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Hypothetical questions and confusion about (far) future transaction charges

So a good friend of mine who claims to not be a btc newbie anymore informed me the opposite day: „at some point, in about 30 years or so one btc transaction might as nicely price ~10k USD ++, halvings are gonna mitigate slightly however nonetheless, gonne be costly as hell“

And that made me surprise… with such factor on the (hypothetical) horizon.. why ought to btc ever be enticing to the conventional individual? Wouldn’t that make it an virtually immovable asset sooner or later? Wouldn’t that make bodily gold the higher asset… remember that I‘m asking this as a btc newbie…

My good friend kinda doesn’t reply my questions so I’m asking right here because it actually bugs me. I’m attempting exhausting to consider in bitcoin however issues like this make me toss and switch.

And sure, I’ve heard of lightning. And sure such upgrades will certainly proceed to pop up increasingly more… however as I lately tried to setup a lightning pockets it informed me that lightning isn’t a 100% KYC… so the place do I am going with my 10k$ charges in 30 years? ????

Assuming I wanna maintain my btc kyc solely and perhaps promote some in 2052.. – lets take it hypothetical however critical. I must know. Thanks upfront!

10 thoughts on “Hypothetical questions and confusion about (far) future transaction charges”

  1. WassaWassaWassup! Scam Alert! Scammers are particularly active on this sub. They operate via private messages and private chat. If you receive private messages, be extremely careful. Use the **report** link to report any suspicious private message to Reddit.

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  2. It is difficult to predict what will happen with Bitcoin transaction fees in the future, particularly 30 years from now. However, it is worth noting that the Bitcoin network is constantly evolving and improving, and there are several potential solutions to the issue of high transaction fees. For example, the Lightning Network is a second-layer solution that allows for near-instant, low-fee transactions on the Bitcoin network. Additionally, the use of technologies like SegWit and block size increases may also help to reduce transaction fees on the Bitcoin network.

  3. BTC will be attractive because it will be the absolute best way to store value. In 30 years, fiat will be worth so little compared to bitcoin that only a poor fool would use it for anything.

    Bitcoin has been scaling for ~13 years with all sorts of new innovations popping up all the time.

    Here’s 10 ways that bitcoin is currently scaling (https://www.whatisbitcoin.com/technical/ways-bitcoin-is-scaling) but there’s more like fedimint e-cash and off-chain swaps by companies like Mercury wallet. Many more will come.

    The on-chain fee market is incredibly important to grow Bitcoin because as the higher fees climb, the greater the incentive to use and develop alternative methods to send bitcoin.

    Lightning isn’t KYC. That’s one of the many reasons why people use it; it’s a more private way to send and receive bitcoin.

  4. Bitcoin is 100% non-KYC. Exchanges perform KYC because they act as middlemen between you and “your” BTC and are therefore beholden to strict rules.

    Lightning is 100% non-KYC. Exchanges can adopt lightning in order to save on fees on their end and pass savings onto you, so I wouldn’t worry about fees from that perspective. Many exchanges already support Lightning, some may even rely on it in the background wherever they can to cut costs.

    Not having performed KYC is not illegal, it isn’t about you. KYC is about companies knowing the customers that they serve, not about you identifying yourself to the powers that be about how much BTC you have. Using P2P exchanges like Bisq is not only SAFER, but you are not dealing with any businesses, so there is LEGALLY no KYC requirement. P2P feels dodgy and dark, but I really don’t know why. I use Bisq, and I recently made a few purchases and realised it was even better than buying at an exchange. I was able to make offers to buy at below market rate and people took my offer! So I pay less in fees, I get a better rate, I do no KYC, there is nothing illegal, and there isn’t a single company taking my personal information and potentially leaking it to criminals due to malice or incompetence, why isn’t EVERYONE doing this?

    With exchanges falling left right and center, with reports of them pretending and not actually holding Bitcoin on your behalf, I don’t trust them to hold Bitcoin for me, and with the ease of Bisq (after a learning curve) I don’t want to deal with them at all.

    With Fiat, the whole thing is funny money, but it is permissioned funny money. There is a central authority and that authority dictates how banks should operate, they pro-actively audit companies, they police their own money.

    Bitcoin is the opposite. This is why we call it a commodity, it just is, it sits there and we use it. Our governments want to regulate it, but since they can’t control it, nor can they control whatever or whoever controls it, they must understand it and work with it. Governments aren’t doing that, so they might tell FTX: “be a good boy, learn how to be safe and do it”, but if FTX decides to not do that and lie instead, the government won’t know, they can’t do shit about it, DO YOU UNDERSTAND?!?! WE the people who are interested and are learning about Bitcoin are best suited to handling Bitcoin. THEM who only want to profit from users who are interested in Bitcoin are NOT suited to handle Bitcoin on our behalf.

    End Rant.

  5. Decentralised blockchains simply cannot be securely scaled to include every single transaction on Earth due to the data storage requirements of running a data (see the “Blockchain Trilemma”). The solution, as you’re already aware, is to scale in layers. One “transaction” on the blockchain could potentially represent thousands of transactions on higher layers. Individuals like you or I simply won’t conduct on-chain transactions apart from in very rare circumstances. Keep in mind that if you [buy bitcoin](https://www.coincorner.com/) in 2022, you are still ridiculously early.

  6. The average person in the future will most likely never touch the mainchain. As fees start to rise there will be more incentive to use tools that reduce onchain footprints. Even today, tools such as transaction batching and lightning are not used to their fullest potential. Statechains is also a second layer scaling solution but this one you can only trade whole UTXOs, known as statecoins, without touching the mainchain. The awesome part is you can build lightning network channels on top of statecoins. Theoretically someone can use a statecoin to open a channel with you, over time the entirety of the channel’s balance winds up on your side, you close the channel and reuse it to open a separate channel with someone else. All without ever touching the mainchain.

  7. Think of onchain to be a settlement layer , where thousands of fees on a payment channel that are fractions of pennies each represented a larger tx fee for settlement onchain for miners. A miner takes their reward , sends it to an exchange (onchain tx where they pay a high fee) and than that exchange(DEX or CEX) pays for the fee and the BTC mined(In reality they are matching buyers and sellers) where they can than load it within a lightning channel and disperse many small withdrawals on lightning to many users. Ultimately, everyone pays these 2 onchain tx fees , but its split between thousands of users so its negligible.

    In my scenario listed above I am painting a situation where there has to be at minimum 2 transactions onchain.

    Miner to exchange and exchange to load in a lightning channel or sidechain.

    Realistically there will be many more transactions than this onchain , for large amounts being sent around to older users opening and closing channels but I’m being extremely pessimistic to describe how even 2 txs per block can pay for security

    Right now Inflation = 6.25 btc + fees of ~0.15 btc per block = 6.4 btc x 16,491 usd a btc = 105,542 usd of security per block on average

    Now lets discuss what this would mean in the future –


    Its the year 2032, inflation has dropped to 0.78125000 BTC per block and Bitcoin only is collecting 1 BTC per block in tx fees. The price of Bitcoin is much higher though at 500k usd per btc which means that we have 1.78125 btc x 500k usd = 890,625 usd of security per block (much higher than todays security.) I think this is a very conservative projection being that 500k btc is very reasonable around that date and only 1 btc in fees per block when btc has already proven to collect 2-4 btc in fees per block for much less users to also be very conservative

    Thus you can see here we have over 8 times the level of security even with such a small block subsidity and very conservative assumptions

    Now lets assume 2 txs per block (for the most pessimistic assumption we can make) = 2 txs with fees of 0.0001 btc per tx = 0.78135 btc collected x 500k = 390,675 usd per block or almost 4 times todays security

    0.0001 btc x 500k = 50 usd tx fees

    390,675 worth of btc sold to users buying 100usd each on average and withdrawing to their lightning node/sidechain = 3,906 users buying that block for 100 usd in tx fees , thus each user paying 2.5 cents each in fees to by those btc

    In reality there will be many more onchain txs than this but Im just doing the math for a worse case scenario of low tx numbers (2 per block)


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