Disclaimer: I’m a hodler and believer, however this one scared me a bit. Any educated feedback?
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time will tell?
a lot can happen in 5 years, let alone 20+.
Everyday a new bullshit FUD article.
BTC is not $65 a transaction.
Also to say Bitcoin dies because price doesn’t double after a halving is stupid.
In this scenario the worst that would happen is bitcoin price finds an equilbrium and there is less volatility. Bitcoin doesn’t die in this scenario it stabilizes coin price, at a significantly higher price than it is at now.
Now stop posting FUD
Was kinda hoping for a more in-depth answers but hey
hypothetical arguments like this are a waste of time particularly if they are about years into the future because no one knows and it can’t be proven. so if this guy is wrong is he gonna owe me bitcoin? cos if there’s no consequence to being wrong then this has no merit and is just fud.
there’s no mention of the difficulty adjustment, miners drop out and come online all the time and the difficulty adjustment compensates for this.
>Because then there’s no further source of funds outside??
Wake up, friend.
[There you have your further sources of funds](https://i.imgur.com/QOHWbfn.png).
ProTip: If you don’t find Bitcoin, use a magnifying glass.
Link? Source? Anything?
No one is forcing anyone to mine. If miners can’t compete or operating efficiently enough to be profitable or aren’t willing to mine at a loss to get non KYC BTC at an effective premium, then the number of miners decreases difficulty will decrease. Eventually the market will find a n equilibrium that makes mining in exchange for transaction fees alone or whatever little subsidy there is in addition to tx fees profitable or worthwhile enough to continue operating and securing the network.
Overtaking gold 3X in market cap would likely result in BTC being utilized as some sort of global reserve currency. so, there would be plenty of people buying it is one thought.
The author things Bitcoin price in dollars stops going up in 2044. Why? Is the FED going to stop printing more dollars? Are all the governments going to stop their money printers?
Also, in 2044, the block reward will be 0.1 bitcoin plus fees. IIRC, the fees per block one year ago were around 1 bitcoin. The possibility of that happening in 2044 is pretty high.
Let’s pretend it is 1 bitcoin in fees per block, plus the reward for finding a block. That’s 1.1 BTC. How much of a deal will it be once the reward gets halved? Will the miners care about the drop that much? They’ll be getting 1.05 BTC after all.
The author is mixing dollars and sats and the whole text is full of confusion. Predicting the future is a tough game and he’s failing at it really badly.
I could not get past it’s.
Bitcoin transaction doesn’t cost $65? And the rest of op thesis I don’t understand.
In 2012 the block reward was 50 BTC, about $1500.
Today, the block reward is down to 6.25 BTC, about $100K.
[EDIT]
Oops. Sorry, I posted *facts* not opinions…
I just listened to a Lex Fridman conversation with billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya that said the both energy and computing power’s cost will drop to effectively zero in the next few years. If mining’s energy costs are free and computing power is free, how does it affect this article’s predictions. I think you cannot predict what is going to happen next week. How can you predict the future? Go back in time 22 years. Would you predict today?
He is forgetting one thing, nominal and real values. If BTC stays with real value, it will adjust accordingly to inflation. The second part is our technology is becoming energy efficient and modern CPUs or future ones will use less energy.
If I ever learned from finance studies, predicting future values will always have margin of errors and you can only predict based on how healthy your samples.
I think the author ment to say $65 Zimbabwe dollars ????
The ramblings of this post have nothing to do with the fundamentals of BTC, so you can safely ignore it.
Why would anyone think the value of BTC will double every 4 years? What a very strange idea!
Downvote this bullsh!t FUD.
More absolute bullshit posted on this sub than anything substantial.
“There’s then no further source of outside funds to invest new money”. Okay.. so all of that text yet you don’t understand the basics on supply and demand?
My opinion is that you give up and find a new hobby. Maybe something with crayons
excuse me, why can’t it become larger than the cap of gold?
The author doesn’t take account of the fact that total mining capacity will naturally adjust down based on available reward, with a consequent downward difficulty adjustment. As rewards drop, miners with higher costs will exit, leaving only those with the lowest electricity cost (possibly just locations where it’s effectively free). So the total mining income will drop until it matches the fees that users are willing to pay.
But then the real issue is not that Bitcoin will collapse from inactivity, but that the difficulty level adjusts down to the point where a 51% attack becomes a real possibility.
Lol what regard wrote this? There is this thing in economics called market equilibrium. The supply and demand of transactions is no different than any other good or service. It will always find a new balance. The variable here is transaction fees since reward fees is predetermined. In case of mass adoption transaction fees in BTC will be lower but in USD higher because of inflation.
Tic tock next block.
Bitcoin doesn’t care about your FUD.
Hilarious! Some solid math in there, and a pretty accurate understanding of market cap.
Also, take one step back: what does it mean that Bitcoin actually dies? Because you know, it effectively can’t die.
Bitcoin doesn’t need for hashrate to keep increasing indefinitely, I assume it is geometric like the price curve upward corrected by technology advancement in ASIC chips performance…
Half of the today hashrate is more than enough to secure the network at the current technological chip advancement state.
For global adoption it’s expected to double the block size in order to allow global throughput for Lightning Network channels management.
As we can see on the described scenario many variable are vrongly assumed and others are omitted, making the entire assert just a speculation.
We aiming at being the worldwide currency not the US stock market….
You can just use your bitcoin to pay in bitcoin.
Regardless, the premise is false. Just because bitcoin exceeds the gold market cap of 10 trillion doesn’t mean it cant double any further. and even if it does not, there will be outside source of funds. The total market cap of currency is like 1540 trillion.
Whoever wrote this is shilling hardcore.
Lawl. That’s my opinion
Not that shit again. The author of this already posted a thread in this sub or the cryptocurrency sub. His theory got destroyed since it was full of errors, but he just couldn’t accept it.
Hashrate will not go up forever. It will find its balance.
Fees are expected to be high in the future. Blocksize is kept small on purpose so that fees can take over in terms of rewards.
Small payments are expected to be made on second layers.
“Many fewer people would use Bitcoin if it had average $65 fees”: He’s still thinking in terms of payments, but Bitcoin is going to be used for moving money around the world. People have no problem paying $40 or so for international wires. How many international wires are made per day?
I’m not worried at all by OP’s theory.
I’m probably more worried about the opposite: fees exploding and regular people being unable to move money on chain because it’s too expensive.
This person doesnt understand How price and marketcap Works.
Fear porn
Over the years we’ve heard many reasons why Bitcoin will fail. I’ve met many bitcoin holders and believers, as you say you are, but I’ve never met anyone who claims to believe in Bitcoin and at the same time believes that the protocol will die.
Scaling can happen infinitely on second layers. Layers such as Lightning or apps can scale to support the protocol, offering different cost vs. security trade-offs. Bitcoin can settle the largest value, in the fastest time, for the cheapest cost of any network. Acquiring enough ASICs to launch a 51% attack is nearly impossible. Launching a 51% attack requires not just energy but access to many ASICs that would be hard to secretly acquire without detection by the other producers. The network can fork onto a new mining algorithm making all the attacker’s ASICs useless.
Block space is fixed supply. Block rewards drop every 4 years until 2140 giving the network plenty of time to adapt to any observed changes. No one in the Bitcoin network will have an incentive to devalue their savings.
Each wave of adoption brings people who argue why Bitcoin will fail.
But Bitcoin will not fail.
Dumb shit post. I’m not even going to waste my time writing three long paragraphs about why the poster doesn’t have a clue.
You have just shown you do not understand finance or bitcoin.
I think there are a few things to consider here.
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With the current price, 5 halvings would only make the marketcap of gold and bitcoin equal if the price doubles every halving.
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Some miners already operate on near-zero opportunity cost environments. When you have the infrastructure to harvest energy from a lake that’s far away from any cities, you might as well use it for mining because you can barely do anything else with that infrastructure. Near-zero cost mining is something that’s overlooked in this text. Obviously, not all of the miners have such infrastructure. That means the less efficient or the ones with higher opportunity cost will have to leave the network. When they leave the network, they will sell their asics to the more efficient ones. That will mean two things, the hash rate will drop to an equilibrium and the mining will become more efficient. We don’t know where that equilibrium will be yet and it’s very difficult to predict it.
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One point of view is, so what if you and me can’t use layer 1? The text suggests that is a threat to the security. However, ordinary people staying away from L1 may not be an issue. Right now, even though we are used to thinking of money as something digital, independent governments and banks don’t necessarily trust each other. They have to settle in huge amounts of cash and gold (well, just gold if they really care about being independent). It is not simple to physically carry such valuable stuff across borders. It is both expensive and difficult. Then a government or a bank wouldn’t mind to pay a few thousand dollars to avoid all those costs, risk and delay. A similar case applies for companies, when you are sending money across borders through a bank as a big company, if they charge you x%, there is a good chance you will be better off with bitcoin. Or if the size of the transactions are always above a few hundred k, bitcoin could be a better option just for self custody, even if you have to pay a few k for fees. In this point of view, bitcoin is simply digital gold. I think if everything else fails, that’s the case that will definitely work for bitcoin.
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It scares me how many ego reactions you see in the comments here, Yes we’re all fans of bitcoin.
But in my opinion this a strong argue to look at.
> miners will drop out, and security will fall inexorably
Bitcoin is secured by its node network, not by miners
> Bitcoin will ultimately die
Surely it will, again and again, as it did many times in 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2022